So what can we expect during the Democratic National Convention at the end of the month?
Well, there will be the suspense of the nomination process as delegate votes are tallied and we find out who the nominee will be. There will be the rhetorical sops thrown out to the usual constituent groups (teachers, unions, et al.). There will be speeches by President Clinton and other Democratic leaders raving about the strong [current buzzword] Democratic ticket. There will be an emotional acceptance speech by the mysterious nominee. And, if certain Bush administration officials have their way, we might see the capture of an al Qaeda leader, such as Osama bin Laden or Ayman Al Zawahiri:
But The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs [high-value targets] by the election. According to one source in Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), “The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the [upcoming] U.S. elections.” Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations–according to a recently departed intelligence official, “no timetable[s]” were discussed in 2002 or 2003–but the November election is apparently bringing a new deadline pressure to the hunt. Another official, this one from the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which is responsible for internal security, explains, “The Musharraf government has a history of rescuing the Bush administration. They now want Musharraf to bail them out when they are facing hard times in the coming elections.” (These sources insisted on remaining anonymous. Under Pakistan’s Official Secrets Act, an official leaking information to the press can be imprisoned for up to ten years.)
A third source, an official who works under ISI’s director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed TNR that the Pakistanis “have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must.” What’s more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: “The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq’s] meetings in Washington.” Says [National Security Council spokesman] Sean McCormack: “I’m aware of no such comment.” But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July”–the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.
It’s nice to see that the Bush administration is making diplomatic efforts to get at al Qaeda, but why the deadlines now? What’s the primary motive evidenced here? Disrupting terrorism? Or winning reelection?
Pushing Musharraf to go after Al Qaeda in the tribal areas may be a good idea despite the risks. But, if that is the case, it was a good idea in 2002 and 2003. Why the switch now? Top Pakistanis think they know: This year, the president’s reelection is at stake.
That’s a pretty cynical view of things. But after all we’ve seen the past three years, can one reasonably view it any other way?