I don’t pretend to have any special insights into the mood of the electorate today. But for the heck of it I’ll offer predictions based upon polling data and the wisdom of political gurus.
Obviously, outcomes in close races all come down to who votes. Hardcore Democrats will vote. Slightly more Republican base voters will show up. The wildcard is how many [moderates, swing voters, independents, whatever you want to call them] are counted. If “independents” are as disgruntled as the media has said they are–if they show up to vote, it should be a good day for the Democratic party.
Without further ado, here are my calls:
U.S. Senate: Democrats +6 seats
This is a tough call. Ordinarily, I’d look at the close poll numbers and try to split the difference, assuming some would break for the Democrats, and some would fall for the Republicans. But recent history indicates that if this is a wave-type election, almost all the races will break one way. And recently the Senate has also been more likely to switch control than the House. So although my gut tells me the Democrats will pick up four or five seats, I’ll go with six on the wave theory.
U.S. House: Democrats +26 seats
Many national pundits are predicting a turnover in 20-35 range. I’ll lean toward the more conservative end (hedging my Senate pick). But I wouldn’t be surprised with anything up to 30. If the Democrats pick up more than 30 seats, things are worse for the Bush administration than I thought.
Governors: Democrats +7 governorships
Today should see the Democrats retake a majority of governorships, which portends well for the future of party-building.
Here’s a nice color-coded map showing poll closing times and close races to watch.
UPDATE: Think Progress has compiled a list of pundit predictions. I’ll soon see how I stack up against the “experts.”

Looks like the “commanders in the field” didn’t do their homework:

A series of secret U.S. war games in 1999 showed that an invasion and post-war administration of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, nearly three times the number there now.
And even then, the games showed, the country still had a chance of dissolving into chaos.

And yet, in the battle to save western civilization from the Islamofacists, we only send 150,000 troops. Go figure.

Muslims:

Clippard reserved his strongest words for what he said he considered paramount for all Americans: the threat of Islam. “Today, Islam has a strategic plan to defeat and occupy America,” he told the 1,200-strong crowd of delegates (called “messengers”), pastors and lay people, many of whom cheered his words.
. . .
Clippard said that Muslims were hoping to take over the United States government one city at a time, and that they were starting with Detroit, where there is already a large Muslim population.
“They are trying to establish a Muslim state inside America, and they are going to take the city of Detroit back to the 15th century and practice Sharia (or Islamic) law there.”
In an interview Tuesday, Clippard said he believed the Islamic “strategy for taking over America” was to wait until there was a Muslim majority here and then “eradicate those who don’t conform to their religion.”

Apparently Islam has filled the void left when Communism fell–the external threat our visionary leaders can rail against.
UPDATE: Fox News Channel contributes to the effort this weekend, airing “Obsession: The Threat of Radical Islam” five times. The thesis: “the Islamofascists are exactly the same as the Nazis, except — to quote one of them — ‘way more dangerous’.” I guess I should watch this documentary, because I didn’t realize the Islamofascists had a trained military of several million troops.

Glenn Greenwald goes way back in the time machine (one month) and discovers that one of Dick Moris’ election predictions was completely wrong. Very surprising. I remember when the alleged liquid bomber threat was uncovered, Morris said that event would completely reshape the mid-terms in the Republicans’ favor.

Punditry and “analysis” of this type really is the backbone of American political dialogue. Most of the people who have been anointed as our mainstream pundits and experts know nothing. The better ones do nothing but mindlessly recite ossified, thoughtless conventional wisdom that they exchange with one another, while most of them are driven by all sorts of personal agendas that cause them to propagandistically spout their own desires and beliefs masquerading as political analysis.

I’m at the point where if I hear Morris say something, I suspect the opposite will likely happen.

Best quote: “This isn’t an election anymore, it’s an intervention.”