October 2007 Archives

• Church must pay:

  A federal jury in Baltimore, Maryland, Wednesday awarded $10.9 million to a father of a Marine whose funeral was picketed by members of a fundamentalist church carrying signs blaming soldiers' deaths on America's tolerance of homosexuals.

  It's low grade to protest at just about any funeral, much less ones of killed soldiers. I suspect the public was overwhelmingly on the Marine's family in this case. But I wonder about the jury's basis for the award. $2.9 million for compensatory damages? $8 million for punitive damages? That's a hefty price for a public demonstration. Better to err on the side of caution when it comes to punishing speech.
• Ewww:

  Ashley Olsen has a new, older man. The 21-year-old twin showed up to the Rose Bar at the Gramercy Park Hotel Monday night with Tory Burch's ex, Lance Armstrong, 36. Our bar spy said, "They came together with a group of friends. Ashley drank red wine, sat on his lap and they were making out all night. They left together around 2 a.m."

  I know we all have different tastes, and perhaps my non-attraction to the Olsen twins is coloring my view here, but 36 and 21? Can't Lance, a public ambassador, find someone closer to his own age?
• A principal at a Massachusetts high school implements several measures, including a yoga class, in an effort to reduce student stress. The rightist reaction is predictably pathetic:

  Bit by bit, the dumbed-down cult of mediocrity, secular extremism, and multicultural madness has infected American public education. Instead of concentrating on the basics and then teaching children to manage and conquer their "stress" through internal discipline, we're removing every last source of possible damage to their egos.

  I'm not sure what this has to do with multiculturalism or "secular extremism." Whatever.

  If you want to fault something, fault the method, not the objective. I think a more effective use of school time would be to do something involving exercise, since kids don't get enough of it these days. That will combat stress and obesity.

• Heh.

  Two economists find themselves locked in a basement. They're not sure what time it is, because it's dark and they can't read their watches. They think it's nearly dinner time, cause they're starting to feel hungry. But they're not worried; they are not starting to panic - because they know that their demand will create sandwiches for them!

  It's just a matter of time before we'll have a lot of new oil created.

The Federal Reserve announces a decision on interest rates today, so a few economic notes:

• The 3rd quarter GDP is announced at a stronger than expected 3.9%. But consider this:

  Despite rising worries about commodity prices, the GDP price index, the broadest measure of price changes in the economy, rose just 0.8% annualized, matching a nine-year low. Inflation hasn't been lower since John F. Kennedy's administration.

  Bonddad says the report should raise eyebrows because deflators are usually over 2%.


• Macro and Other Market Musings notes the regional differences in United States economic growth. The Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia has a U.S. map showing the latest monthly coincident index for each state. In September Tennessee had between 0.1% and 0.5% growth.


• The Big Picture has a map showing state by state mortgage loan performance. The Tennessee number of delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures improved at 0% - 5% rate over the past 12 months.

Elsewhere:

• The fine folks that brought us KnoxViews have now rolled out TennViews, a site featuring progressive Tennessee news and opinion.


• "Why men and women argue differently"


• Josh Marshall has a video from Islamofascism Awareness Week.

Bill Maher commentary from last week's show worth repeating. Specifically the section starting at 4:03:

An excerpt:

At the Republican debate this week Mike Huckabee said, "Islamofacism is the greatest threat we ever faced." Really? More then the Nazis? And the Russians? And the Red Coats?
. . .
And you thought that people that were scared of gays and Mexicans were paranoid. Islamic terrorist taking over America? They can barely get across the monkey bars.

Our defense budget is $600 billion a year. They're using guns they took off a dead Soviet in 1981. I think we can hold Charleston.

We are the most powerful nation on earth, with the largest economy and the best military. And we are made to act the fool by a few thousand cave dwellers who still put out their videos on VHS.

And that's the problem. Because of the incompetence that goes by the name George Bush we have become the most insecure, paranoid superpower ever. We don't think we can get anything right anymore. We can't take care of our own citizens after a hurricane, or plan for our wars, or maintain our infrastructure, and our celebrity rehab facilities obviously aren't working out.

As a species we are failing at survival trick number one: prioritize the threats.

As Maher notes, the "Islamofacism is the greatest threat America has ever faced" line is wrong on two levels.

First, it's historically wrong. Back in their day, the German and British armies Americans battled were the most formidable military force of the era. Why are we diminishing the risk those patriots faced by exaggerating today's threat?

Second, the terrorism hype masks things that we really should be worried about. Don't get me wrong--terrorism is a real threat which, regrettably, may kill thousands of Americans over the next decade. But in the big picture it's not the catastrophic event that the vast majority of Americans encounter. Most of us are tested by a health issue, or an auto accident, or crime, or poverty, or some other routine, non-newsworthy hardship.

If you want to worry about something, these are the kinds of things you should be worrying about. Ironically, they are also the issues that some politicians want to avoid discussing. Perhaps that's why they are always fear mongering with terrorism.

Via Angry Bear, there's interesting current and historical information at Drought Monitor.

For example, on the main page there's a United States map showing the current drought areas. Most of the Tennessee Valley is in a D4 "Exceptional" Drought on the October 23 map. The site also has six-week and twelve-week animations. East Tennessee has been in a D3 or D4 drought throughout those periods.

Drought Monitor also has historical maps of the Palmer Drought Index going back to 1895. According to this map, Tennessee experienced severe or extreme droughts 5% - 10% of the time from 1895 -1995. The drought periods in the Tennessee River basin are charted here.

This weekend I'm playing "Sheep May Safely Graze" at church.

Here's a performance of the song by concert pianist Greg Anderson.

I'm playing the melody on the trumpet; someone else is playing the piano.

UPDATE: The piece went relatively well. I missed a note or two, but it could have been worse. I may post a clip if I obtain a web-friendly one.

Bad news from down under:

THE forecast size of the NSW grain crop has been cut by a further 40 per cent due to dry, hot and windy weather this month and last month.
. . .
It means the 2007-08 harvest is likely to be even smaller than the disastrous drought-ravaged 2006-07 harvest and the worst in more than a decade.

Could the outlook be even more worse? Yes.

In the past year the price of wheat has more than doubled, to reach new highs, and this week the UN published a report that said the planet's water, land, air, plants, animals and fish stocks were all in "inexorable decline".

It warned that the world's population of 6.75 billion "has reached a stage where the amount of resources needed to sustain it exceeds what is available" and climate change "may threaten humanity's very survival".

The report cited is the United Nations Environmental Programme's Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4). The threat to survival phrase may be a bit over the top, but there's little doubt in my mind that changes are coming which will impact to our way of life . . . and some of them won't be pleasant.

Kevin Drum:

Rudy Giuliani on whether waterboarding is torture:

It depends on how it's done. It depends on the circumstances. It depends on who does it.

Italics mine. So that's that: when bad guys torture, it's bad. When good guys torture, it's good. Apparently that's the modern Republican Party's version of moral clarity.

Yes, Giuliani's statement reflects the Bush administration's position fairly well. The American public doesn't know what "enhanced interrogation techniques" its government is using, but we can rest assured that whatever is being done isn't torture. Because these techniques are being done properly--under the law . . . as outlined by secret executive orders.

If we follow the rules, waterboarding is OK.

Tuesday's Tennessean has an article and video about Tommy McAuley, a father who pushes and pulls his 6-year-old, cerebral palsy-stricken daughter while competing in mini-marathons.

McAuley says he was motivated to do this when he watched a documentary on Dick and Rick Hoyt, whose accomplishments are even more remarkable.

Josh Marshall alerts us that this week is "Islamo-Fascism Awareness Week." I'm glad he did because somehow it escaped my calendar.

What is "Islamo-fascism Awareness Week"? Apparently, a series of gatherings on a number of American college campuses:

The purpose of this protest is as simple as it is crucial: to confront the two Big Lies of the political left: that George Bush created the war on terror and that Global Warming is a greater danger to Americans than the terrorist threat.

I'm not sure why terrorism is being compared to global warming, but OK--we don't want to be afraid of the wrong thing. And institutions of higher learning are the best venues to properly orient fear, because that's where the "war on error terror" is being lost:

In the face of the greatest danger Americans have ever confronted, the academic left has mobilized to create sympathy for the enemy and to fight anyone who rallies Americans to defend themselves.

Yes, that monolithic, liberal academia--it must be stopped! I assume the Department of Homeland Security routinely monitors and breaks up university faculty meetings, because there's some real anti-American scheming going on there.

What is this week going to accomplish?

Islamo-Fascism Awareness Week is a national effort to oppose these lies and to rally American students to defend their country.

That's a laudable objective. How are students being encouraged to help defend America? Through military enlistment drives? By purchasing war bonds? Participating in patriotic community service?

Not exactly. The agenda consists of the following elements:

Ø A keynote speaker on Islamo-Fascism

Ø A panel on the Oppression of Women in Islam or any facet of the Islamo-Fascist threat

Ø A showing of Suicide Killers, Obsession, or Islam: What the West Needs to Know or the ABC mini-series The Path to 9/11

Ø A "sit-in" outside the offices of the Women's Studies Department protesting the silence of feminists over the oppression of women in Islam

Ø A petition denouncing Islamo-Fascism and its violence against women, gays, Christians, Jews and religious people

Ø A memorial service for the victims of Islamo-Fascist violence around the world.

That's a good defense plan. It's reassuring to know that when the next big attack hits, our women's studies departments will be properly secured with ample copies of The Path to 9/11.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm doing my part in spreading awareness, as terrorism is an issue that's been completely ignored by the liberal media.

We're all going to be killed! Vote Republican.

• According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in the United States the tax burden is 25.6% of G.D.P. This ranks 17th among developed countries. The global average for the group is 36%.

• Competing outlooks on the price of oil:
  • In one corner:

    "We don't think industry fundamentals support oil prices near $60 (a barrel), let alone $90, but with excessive speculation and lack of government scrutiny, prices could go even higher, before they crash, eventually, in our view," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., in a research note.

  • In the other:

  
  
  I'm betting we see a lot more $100+ oil than $60 oil. But what do I know; I'm not a high-paid "analyst."

  UPDATE: I just heard a guest on CNBC say that gasoline prices are about to catch up with oil prices. He said the price per gallon could jump $0.20 in the next week or so and soon climb as much as $1. If you think the political mood is pretty bad out there now, wait till this happens.
  



• Senator Sam Brownback is expected to drop out of the presidential race today. I never figured out why Brownback didn't get more traction among the religious right, since he's clearly played to that constituency in his senate career. I guess he wasn't "sexy" enough (in the political sense).


• Speaking of political oddities, I've repeatedly heard leading GOP talking pointers (Rove, Limbaugh, et al.) assert that Iraq was not the central issue in the 2006 election, and that it won't be in 2008. I find this very hard to reconcile with all the rhetoric we've heard from the same people about how this same fight is "World War III," "World War IV," the fight for our survival, and so on. If this war is the most important challenge our nation is facing, why isn't it the most important political issue?

Interesting comment:

Ken Deffeyes, geologist and a professor of geosciences, emeritus at Princeton University, discussed the rapid depletion of crude oil. The global discovery of conventional crude oil peaked in 1964 and production peaked in 2005, according to Deffeyes.
. . .
The rapid loss of Arctic ice has led nations to lay claims to possible energy reserves under the thinning polar ice cap. Deffeyes said more than 100 deep-sea holes have been drilled elsewhere and no oil has been found. A set of special conditions are all required to produce oil and natural gas reserves and most of the planet never had all of them. There may be no significant reserves beneath the Arctic ocean.

With all the news reports of countries making competing claims in the Arctic, I just assumed that there are known oil fields beneath the ice. Apparently that's not the case.

UPDATE: The N.Y. Times has an article on the U.S. Coast Guard is ramping up its operations in the Arctic Ocean due to the increased shipping in the region.

I was bumping around the Internet and came across stuff on bicycle lanes. Apparently, in some parts of the world they have a strip of the road designated specifically for cyclists to use. [I had to look it up because such a modern marvel doesn't exist around here.]

StreetFilms has a video which advocates taking this concept one step further by constructing physically-separated bike lanes:

Many cyclists are opposed to bike lanes because: (1) they can be dangerous at intersections, and (2) they condition motorists to think bicycles should be kept off the main road. (Tom Revay offers several arguments against physically-separated bicycle lanes here).

I don't have much first-hand experience with bike lanes. My sense is that they have their place along certain types of roads--e.g., where traffic doesn't tend to make abrupt turns. A physically-separated bike lane is a more inviting version for casual riders who have a low tolerance for riding with traffic. That's a good thing; the more people cycling, the better.

Unfortunately, in some cities, such as Knoxville, the road designs are such that it seems impractical to set aside even standard bike lanes--much less separated ones. Perhaps over time cycle-friendly accommodations will be incorporated in the road system, but it's not something that will happen overnight. And it's going take awareness efforts like this video to get the ball (or wheel) rolling.

I was curious about how this year's drought compared to previous dry spells. So I emailed Mr. Brian Boyd at NOAA, who kindly provided the following information:

Top Ten Driest Years in Knoxville
Inches of Precipitation

(1) 24.68 2007 (through Oct.12)
(2) 32.48 12/31/1986
(3) 33.67 12/31/1930
(4) 34.30 12/31/1988
(5) 34.66 12/31/1987
(6) 35.16 12/31/1925
(7) 35.75 12/31/1941
(8) 35.76 12/31/1968
(9) 36.00 12/31/1952
(10) 36.40 12/31/1985

So how does 2007 project to rank on this list? Mr. Boyd pointed out that typically we could expect to receive the following precipitation amounts during the remainder of the year:

October 1.65"
November 3.98"
December 4.45"

Under this normal scenario, we'd finish the year with 34.76", making it the fifth driest year on record.

Obviously, this hasn't been a normal year. With weather models pointing to a warmer and drier than normal winter, I suspect this year will finish as one of the five driest ones on record.

We'll see.

Brian Kim offers an article entitled "Top 5 Things Every Extrovert Should Know About Introverts."

By nature I'm an introvert and I think this is a good read. I was particularly struck by this point:

If you really want to engage an introvert in conversation, skip the small talk. Introverts tend to love deep conversations on subjects that interest them. They love to debate, go past the superficial and poke around the depths in people's minds to see what's really going on in there. Most, if not all introverts tend to regard small talk as a waste of time, unless it's with someone new they just met.
. . .
Extroverts thrive on small talk.
Introverts abhor it.

This is generally true for me, though I hadn't consciously linked it to being an introvert. The fact is that I'm sometimes reluctant to engage in the "how's it going"-, "how about this weather"-type conversations because they seem so painfully obvious that I feel silly starting them unless I think they will quickly lead elsewhere. I know that's not the mindset of a good conversationalist, but it's my inclination.

In a broader sense, I suppose this characteristic is a reason I am deemed "shy" in some social situations. If I don't feel I have something compelling to add to a discussion, I may not add anything--which may lead me to be branded as "quiet." As Kim notes, this is a really more of social preference rather than an indicator of what I think about the people at the gathering.

Via Daily Kos, there's an image here (or here) which is supposed to reveal if you are predominately a right brained or left brained person:

THE Right Brain vs Left Brain test ... do you see the dancer turning clockwise or anti-clockwise?

If clockwise, then you use more of the right side of the brain and vice versa.

Most of us would see the dancer turning anti-clockwise though you can try to focus and change the direction; see if you can do it.

The first couple times I glanced at the dancer, I initially saw her turning counterclockwise. But in subsequent tests I've seen quite a bit of clockwise rotation. So the results are mixed. Other tests I've taken suggest I'm left brained. Sometimes I think both sides are malfunctioning.

More on brain division here.

In the first question of his first presidential debate, Senator Fred Thompson was asked why a majority of Americans feel we are headed toward a recession. His response?

"I think there is no reason to believe we that are headed to a recession."

Really? I guess 2/3 of Americans have an active imagination. Perhaps the senator should read news headlines a little closer:

The battered housing sector took another blow Tuesday, with an industry group reporting that a gauge of pending home sales tumbled to its lowest level ever as the credit crunch restrains purchases.

Closer to home:

The price of a loaf of bread has gone up nearly 50 percent in the past few months.

The Second Harvest Food Bank has just about everything, except bread.

"We haven't seen a loaf of bread in a really long time," says Executive Director Elaine Machiela.

The rising costs of bread have forced food pantries to cut out bread. And due to the drought, networks of donations have also dried up.

Something is clearly wrong with the picture when food pantries can't stock bread.

I don't know if we will dip into a recession or not--recent odds are at just under 50%. But there is plenty of evidence about that we might be experiencing an economic downturn. Senator Thompson would be well advised not to ignore it.

How can we get the biggest food bang per acre? The question becomes increasingly important because the number of humans is increasing and the amount of arable land isn't. Moreover, as on-going food inflation indicates, the kinds of foods people eat impact global food prices. People in China and other developing countries have been adopting a more "westernized" diet, thus driving up demand for more agriculturally-intensive products.

Researchers at Cornell compared 42 diets with varied meat composition in terms of how much land it took to produce the food. Unsurprisingly, it takes a lot less land to grow the food feed a vegetarian than to feed a heavy meat eater:

"A person following a low-fat vegetarian diet, for example, will need less than half (0.44) an acre per person per year to produce their food," said Christian Peters, M.S. '02, Ph.D. '07, a Cornell postdoctoral associate in crop and soil sciences and lead author of the research. "A high-fat diet with a lot of meat, on the other hand, needs 2.11 acres."

However, a strict vegetarian diet is not necessarily the most efficient in terms of land use because it takes higher-quality farmland to raise crops than it does to raise animals:

Thus, although vegetarian diets in New York state may require less land per person, they use more high-valued land. "It appears that while meat increases land-use requirements, diets including modest amounts of meat can feed more people than some higher fat vegetarian diets," said Peters.
. . .
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the average American ate approximately 5.8 ounces of meat and eggs a day in 2005.

"In order to reach the efficiency in land use of moderate-fat, vegetarian diets, our study suggests that New Yorkers would need to limit their annual meat and egg intake to about 2 cooked ounces a day," Peters said.

Not only is such a diet more economical, but it's healthier, too.

Via Crooks and Liars, here's a familiar-sounding argument:

"I made my arguments and went down in flames. History will prove me right." -- Texas Rangers owner George W. Bush after voting against realignment and a new wild-card system during a Major League Baseball owners meeting in September 1993. Bush was the lone dissenter in a 27-1 vote.

As Jerry Crasnick notes, the post-season success of wild-card teams, coupled with Major League Baseball's growth in attendance and revenue, strongly suggest that Mr. Bush was wrong.

But what do we know? I'm sure that years after we have all died, people will suddenly awaken to Mr. Bush's wisdom in opposing baseball's reconfiguration. And in invading Iraq.

I know this isn't as juicy an item as who has custody of Britney Spears' kids, but one would think this developing story might be getting more attention:

Soaring food prices will hurt the world's poor and increase the risks of political upheaval, a senior United Nations food agency official said on Thursday.

"We are squeezed between increasing oil prices and food price hikes," said Alexander Sarris, director, commodities and trade, of the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

He said the world's poorest people were the most vulnerable to the impact of surging grain prices, driven by falling stocks, rising production costs due to higher energy prices, adverse weather, faster economic growth and increasing biofuels demand.

Two observations:

(1) I believe we will see increasing political instability in several countries due to this food/oil "shortage"--even if that is not always labeled as the cause.

(2) Rising food costs aren't just a problem in Africa or Asia; it's affecting poor Americans, too.

Perhaps it will soon dawn on political leaders that using food to make fuel might not be the smartest of policies after all.

UPDATE: MSNBC has more.

. . . or, put differently, cycling at high elevations.

The last two weekends I've certainly met my climbing quota on the bicycle. I made two trips to the mountains of Western North Carolina for three rides. The weather all three days was spectacular: blue skies, comfortable temperatures, and incredible views--I couldn't have ordered better conditions.

On September 22, I went to Sylva, North Carolina, and participated in the second annual Tour de Tuck. The ride is a 104 mile loop which features 11,000 feet of elevation gain and a 45 mile leg on the Blue Ridge Parkway.

This past Saturday I returned to the Blue Ridge Parkway and joined 12 other Bike Forum members on a 39-mile social ride. {Pictures available at the link; I got there late so I'm not in the group pictures at the start.] We did an out-and-back ride, climbing for several miles to Richland Balsam overlook, the highest point on the parkway, then riding along the crest of the mountains until just beyond the Devil's Courthouse overlook. A good time was had by all.

Saturday afternoon I drove down the parkway to Asheville, where I rendezvoused with my sister, brother-in-law, and one-year-old niece. Little Seth is quite a handful. And I'm certainly not a natural at childcare.

Sunday afternoon I parked at the Asheville Folk Art Center and rode to the top of Mount Mitchell. It was the first time I'd been to Mount Mitchell, and I didn't know exactly what to expect. In general, the climbing on the parkway wasn't too bad (steep), but it was a longer trip than I expected.

I got a little bonus riding in along the way. Someone had told me that there was water available at "Craggy Gardens." When you're doing an multi-hour unsupported ride, you definitely don't want to run out of water. So I turned off the parkway when I saw a sign for Craggy Gardens picnic area. Only I didn't see a picnic area there; I saw a windy steep road that headed up into the woods. I assumed the picnic area must be right around the corner, so I kept going to the next turn, then the next . . . and next . . . and next. Finally, about a mile later, I reached the picnic area. On the way out, I debated whether or not water had been worth the climb. That question was answered three miles later when I saw the Craggy Gardens visitor's center, with water fountains, right on the side of the parkway. Alas.

The parkway tops out at Craggy Gardens and rolls up and down along the ridge until you reach Mount Mitchell State Park. There's an 11 mile stretch which offers some fantastic views. I stopped several times to soak it all in.

The climbing wasn't over when I reached the state park. To the contrary, there was 1,400 more feet to go. The first couple miles past the entrance are steeper than the parkway, and I was feeling my legs by that point. Fortunately, the grade eased up the last couple miles as I motored to the finish.

At last I reached the summit. The observation deck area was closed for construction, so I had to settle for the parking lot view. It was still pretty good. I'm not skilled at identifying landmarks, but I could clearly see what I assume is the Smoky Mountain ranges, 70 miles away.

After basking for 20 minutes at the top, I headed back down the mountain. There were a couple notable climbs to toil through, but otherwise the return trip was much faster than the ascent. The only two challenges I had going down were: (1) dodging the potholes and uneven pavement, and (2) navigating a tunnel in the evening daylight [it gets dark in there without lights!].

I got back to the car just before sunset. I returned to Knoxville tired, but satisfied from another successful cycling weekend.