I’ve read (here and elsewhere) that economists have collectively failed to accurately predict a recession in the past 40 years.
So where should we turn to peer into an economic crystal ball? Perhaps the nimble Winnebago. Yes, seriously:
Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.
For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.
I wonder how much gas prices are a factor here. It seems to me that if you are a baby boomer who can afford to shell out tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for an RV, a $1 increase for a gallon of gas might not be a deal breaker. But that’s just hypothetical thinking. I suspect anxiety generated by this trend is a bigger culprit.