Conceptualizing The Magnitude Of The Government Bailout

It’s getting increasingly difficult to simply imagine the amount of money the federal government is committing to get us out of the financial crisis.
Barry Ritholtz tries to put it in context by comparing it to the cost of previous big ticket government expenditures:

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion
TOTAL: $3.92 trillion

According to his estimate, the government has pledged $4.6165 trillion for this bailout. On Monday Bloomberg reported the government is prepared to make $7.76 trillion available to deal with the crisis.
Whatever the total, it’s almost an unimaginable sum.
UPDATE: Full post on Barry’s blog.

Is The Primary Over Yet?

Atrios, on the media’s speculation regarding the future Obama cabinet:

Most of it is even more useless than campaign horse race journalism. If they must do it they could at least provide more useful information about the people they’re speculating about, but instead it’s all just a soap opera.

I assume he’s talking about the Senator Clinton for Secretary of State rumors, which have dominated TV news this week. And I agree–it would be nice for pundits to focus on what Clinton (or any other candidate) brings to the table for a specific position, rather than an endless rehash of the political power play by play.
Instead, the potential appointment is viewed merely as a primary postscript. If I received a dollar for every time a TV talker said “team of rivals” or “keep your friends close and your enemies closer,” I’d get a nice check this week.

Declining Economic Indicators: NFL Playoff Ticket Prices

Another sign of recessionary times:

The average ticket price for NFL playoff games this season will decrease by approximately 10 percent from last season.
Citing economic challenges facing fans as the reason for the reduction, the NFL confirmed the lower prices Wednesday. But the specific leaguewide average playoff ticket price cannot be determined until the home playoff sites are decided; prices vary from market to market depending on costs for regular-season tickets.
“We want to be responsive to the economic challenges facing our fans,” an NFL spokesman said.

I view professional sporting events as being so expensive that I’d like to think this move is a realization by the NFL that its ticket prices had gotten out of hand, so it’s simply returning them to more reasonable levels. But for years people have demonstrated that they are willing to pay ridiculous ticket prices. The only thing that has changed this year is that fans are reaching the financial breaking point and can no longer afford to do so. If they had the money, they’d continue paying it. But hard times are reshaping people’s priorities.
An interesting side question: If things continue to go south in the NFL economy for a season or two, will it be deemed “too big to fail” and thus become eligible for a federal bailout?

2008 Electoral Map Vs. 1992 Electoral Map

FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting post comparing the 2008 electoral map with the 1992 electoral map. Which states voted more Democratic last week as compared with when Clinton won his first term? Which states voted more Republican?
Basically the Republicans have made notable gains in the western Appalachian states, the Mid-South, the southern plains, and the mountain west. Meanwhile, the Democrats have solidified their hold on the Northeast, while making gains in the Midwest, Pacific coast, and southern Rocky Mountains.
The summary:

Essentially, by sacrificing 50 or so Electoral Votes from the inland South, the Democrats have taken about 60 votes from former swing states and turned them into Lean Democratic states, and another 44 or so from former lean Republican states and turned them into swing states. This is a good trade-off.

See the post for a map and full Electoral College breakdown.

Preident-Elect Obama

A belated congratulations to Preident-elect Obama, who ran one of the best campaign operations I have seen.
Obama’s election is obviously noteworthy because he is the first African-American candidate to win. The 2008 campaign stretched out for so long, with Obama the front-runner much of the time, that on one level I had already adjusted to the idea of having an African-American president.
Still, as I watched him speak at Grant Park, I stepped back and tried to view the scene as I would have seen it just ten years ago. And in that light, it’s totally unexpected. I imagined I might see a black president at some point during my lifetime. But given the dearth of black governors and senators at the time, it seemed unlikely that it would be anytime soon.
Looking forward, Obama is inheriting one of the biggest challenges an incoming president has faced since the Vietnam War. On the international front, he faces armed conflict on two fronts and simmering issues with several rogue states. But by far his biggest problem is the tanking world economy (bonddad has a series of graphs illustrating the situation here). This will dominate his first year in office . . . and likely well beyond that.
I hope President Obama is able to run the government as well as he ran his campaign. We’re going to need it.

Election Day 2008 Predictions

Because I can make guesses, like everyone else.
President: Obama 353 McCain 185
Obama wins Kerry states + NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL
My toughest call was NC and MO. They appear to be close enough that both could go either way. I picked one for Obama; one for McCain. I could have flipped a coin, but awarded NC to Obama on the basis of NC’s early voting turnout.
Senate: 57(D) 40(R) 2(I) (GA runoff)
House: 263(D) 172(R)
Reports of high voter turnout presumably favor Democratic candidates. The issue is whether young and sporadic/first-time voters show up. If they do, we should see a Democratic wave tonight. If not, we may have a late night as overwhelmed election workers sort through the mess.
NOV. 5 AM UPDATE: The predictions were fairly on target. As expected, MO and NC were incredibly close. McCain is the apparent winner in MO. Obama has a slight lead in NC with “100%” of the precincts reporting, but no big media have awarded it yet.
With NC and MO tentatively outstanding, the only state I missed was IN, which itself was so close it took at least seven hours to sort out.
It’s still too early to tell how the Senate may shake out, but I could potentially miss three races. A runoff has not yet been called in GA. Franken trails in MN, with a recount pending. And Merkley trails in OR, with the vote count ongoing.
House races are still being counted, but right now the Democrats are apparently two or three seats short of my projection.