This is a random musing; I don’t have hard data to back it up. But I’m curious why the TV pundits have offered relatively little discussion on Hispanic voters this election cycle.
I recall quite a bit of conversation about the group in 2004. Who was doing better winning Hispanic-American voters: George Bush or John Kerry? It even loomed fairly large in the 2006 election. Immigration policy was certainly a hot topic, as many conservatives played up the immigration “crisis.”
Yet this year I’ve heard very little on both fronts. I don’t understand why. Did the growing Latino bloc vanish? Have all the illegal immigrants return home?
Off the top of my head, I can only come up with two possible reasons why this facet of the election has been downplayed:
(1) Last year Senator McCain maintained a more “liberal” stance on comprehensive immigration reform–much closer to that of Senator Obama’s than the position held by many Republicans. This, to some degree, has taken the issue off the table.
It’s worth noting that President Bush also has had a relatively liberal immigration position, yet that did not stop Republicans from making hay out of the issue in 2004 and 2006.
(2) The souring U.S. economy may have reduced the influx of migrant workers. Construction and service-sector jobs have been drying up, thanks to the recession. The economic magnet is much weaker than it used to be. As the flow of migrants has decreased, the issue has receded from the headlines:
Data released in September by the Census Bureau showed that overall immigration slowed dramatically in 2007, though the bureau does not distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants.
. . .
The Center for Immigration Studies, a research organization that supports tighter controls on immigration, has estimated that the number of undocumented immigrants in the country has declined by 11 percent, or 1.3 million, since August 2007. As of May, the estimated illegal immigrant population in the United States was 11.2 million.
Whatever the reason, the disappearing national discourse on Hispanic politics remains mysterious to me.