Here’s an interesting demographic trend: American teenagers and twenty-somethings are driving less. Data:
The share of automobile miles driven by people aged 21 to 30 in the U.S. fell to 13.7% in 2009 from 18.3% in 2001 and 20.8% in 1995, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration’s National Household Travel Survey released earlier this year.
That’s a sizable drop. And this came despite the fact that the share of 21-30 year olds in the population increased slightly.
Not only are young people driving less, fewer of them are driving at all:
In 1978, nearly half of 16-year-olds and three-quarters of 17-year-olds in the U.S. had their driver’s licenses, according to Department of Transportation data. By 2008, the most recent year data was available, only 31% of 16-year-olds and 49% of 17-year-olds had licenses, with the decline accelerating rapidly since 1998.
Why the change? The article (“Is Digital Revolution Driving Decline in U.S. Car Culture?”) posits that the Internet is largely responsible.
- Young people enjoy public transportation now more (as opposed to driving) because it frees their attention up to use electronic devices while commuting.
- Internet telecommuting makes physical presence optional for some jobs
- Social media allow teenagers the flexibility to interact with their friends virtually so they need not drive around to connect with them
All of those are true, of course, but I think they’re secondary causes for the phenomenon. I think 18-year-olds still want the freedom to drive around town even if they are tweeting back and forth.
I believe the primary force driving this trend is economic, which the article curiously downplays:
The economy, rather than any longer-term secular trend, has impacted driving and licensing among younger people, said Paul Taylor, chief economist with the National Automobile Dealers Association. Unemployment has led some younger consumers to drive less, and the cost of insuring a 16-to-19-year-old driver alone can discourage cash-strapped parents from allowing them to get licenses. State licensing requirements and restrictions by many high schools and colleges on driving are also a factor.
Expense and unemployment are big barriers to teenagers. It costs a lot to keep a car:
According to DOT data, it costs $8,000 a year to operate a car based on the average 15,000 annual miles driven. In all, Americans spend $1 trillion to $2 trillion annually on automobiles, Mr. Draves said, including everything from the cars themselves to the roads they run on, the gas they need and the $100 billion spent insuring them.
Whatever the causes, this trend alters the transportation landscape. One immediate effect is that vehicle traffic now is safer since teenage drivers are more accident prone and there are fewer cars on the roads.
In the longer term, this should prompt a shift in government spending away from roads toward more public transportation, as a larger percentage of the population will be accustomed to living life without a car.