You may have noticed that I haven’t been commenting on presidential election polls as much as some people have. A couple reasons for this. First, the election isn’t today and the slight bobbing up and down of the polls over the next month or so isn’t that significant. Second, the generic national polls are pretty meaningless, since we don’t elect based on the popular vote.
Electoral College polls are a little better. And since Zogby has the reputation of being more accurate than most, I note his snapshot of where things stand heading into the Republican convention.
Based on polling in 16 battleground states Zogby has the current score as:
Kerry 286
Bush 214
Two states–Florida and Missouri–are too close to call. I’m not paying to read the full report, but according to the map shown on MSNBC, the only toss-up states Bush leads in are Ohio and West Virginia. All the rest, including Tennessee, are leaning toward Kerry.
So when is Kerry going to start doing some serious campaigning in the Volunteer State?
None of those polls mean anything until after the Republican Convention. Once the week’s over, Kerry will realize state’s like Tennessee are a lost cause, and the electoral map will look very different.
It’s not like you only let one team bat in a baseball game. I’d wait until both teams get a chance before you start calling races.
I don’t think there will be a very big convention bounce (similar to what Kerry got). At any rate, the only “call” I’ve made is that Kerry may win the state, and that he should be waging a more agressive campaign here.
FWIW (and here’s a couple links you might want to bookmark):
The Current Electoral Vote Predictor rates TN as “barely Kerry.” That means that the last poll they looked at shows Kerry ahead, but Kerry’s lead is less than the margin of error (MOE) for the poll. If I were running the site, I’d rate that “undecided” or “tied” myself; it’s still a toss up there.
Race2004.net rates TN “undecided”; their details on the poll indicates the same as the Electoral Vote Predictor; Kerry leads, but his lead is less than the MOE (49.6% Kerry to 47.7% Bush, with a 3.5% MOE).
I agree with you that TN is (much to my surprise) in play, and I’m surprised and disappointed in Kerry that he’s not campaigning more heavily in the state. To judge from what I can see on Memphis TV (granted, I watch very little of Memphis TV), you’d be hard pressed to know that Bush is opposed at all.
Just a few quick thoughts:
1) I agree with CJ. I am fully expecting Bush to jump in the polls about 15% after the convention. It only makes sense, Bush will lay out his plan for the next four years, promising all Americans to become instant millionaires, zero pollution, $0.05 a gallon gas until hydrogen cars become available in the next few years, and the entire world bows down to the US in total adoration and respect (under the threat of Bush’s new “mini-nukes” of course). Anything less than a 15% boost for Bush would be a washout. [/abject sarcasm]
2) Again as CJ will readily admit to, God is on Bush’s side, so he cannot lose this election, thus all this talk of polls is irrelevant.
3) Kerry came here to Las Vegas two weeks ago, and rocked the house. NV is a swing state, leaning red. So I would hope he makes an appearance in TN