Who knows how accurate this estimate is, but if it’s anywhere close this is bad news:
The White House yesterday drew up emergency plans to accelerate the transfer of power in Iraq after being shown a devastating CIA report warning that the guerrilla war was in danger of escalating out of US control.
. . .
One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents’ strength at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon had led the administration to believe.
An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described it as a “bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting stronger”.
“It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and dramatic change of course,” the source said.
50,000 insurgents? Wow.
The flypaper idea won’t be such a good plan if the flies overrun the paper. Things are going to get ugly if we don’t get the Iraqi people to behave as though they have a personal stake establishing a stable government. And the Coalition Provisional Authority hasn’t made acceptable progress in that direction.
Hopefully the administration’s latest plan will make more headway.