I don’t pretend to have any special insights into the mood of the electorate today. But for the heck of it I’ll offer predictions based upon polling data and the wisdom of political gurus.
Obviously, outcomes in close races all come down to who votes. Hardcore Democrats will vote. Slightly more Republican base voters will show up. The wildcard is how many [moderates, swing voters, independents, whatever you want to call them] are counted. If “independents” are as disgruntled as the media has said they are–if they show up to vote, it should be a good day for the Democratic party.
Without further ado, here are my calls:
U.S. Senate: Democrats +6 seats
This is a tough call. Ordinarily, I’d look at the close poll numbers and try to split the difference, assuming some would break for the Democrats, and some would fall for the Republicans. But recent history indicates that if this is a wave-type election, almost all the races will break one way. And recently the Senate has also been more likely to switch control than the House. So although my gut tells me the Democrats will pick up four or five seats, I’ll go with six on the wave theory.
U.S. House: Democrats +26 seats
Many national pundits are predicting a turnover in 20-35 range. I’ll lean toward the more conservative end (hedging my Senate pick). But I wouldn’t be surprised with anything up to 30. If the Democrats pick up more than 30 seats, things are worse for the Bush administration than I thought.
Governors: Democrats +7 governorships
Today should see the Democrats retake a majority of governorships, which portends well for the future of party-building.
Here’s a nice color-coded map showing poll closing times and close races to watch.
UPDATE: Think Progress has compiled a list of pundit predictions. I’ll soon see how I stack up against the “experts.”