The one-year anniversary of the announcement of the surge in Iraq has renewed the debate on whether or not the military escalation is “working.” On one hand, war supporters claim it is a success because violence is down from its peak in 2006. On the other hand, war opponents declare it has failed because Iraq has not made significant progress toward political stability. In the middle, you’ve got the news media who doesn’t offer much insight into to what is happening in Iraq beyond reporting American casualties.
So, what do we make of the conflicting claims? I have a simple rule to assess military success:
The American military will have accomplished its ultimate objective when it can
- substantially leave Iraq (less than 30,000 troops remaining), without
- the country descending into violence or chaos
Until that happens, all we are doing is adjusting the occupation strategy.
From all appearances, we are still years away from the surge bringing about “success” in Iraq.
UPDATE: Here we go:
The Iraqi defense minister said Monday that his nation would not be able to take full responsibility for its internal security until 2012, nor be able on its own to defend Iraq’s borders from external threat until at least 2018.
. . .
Pentagon officials expressed no surprise at Mr. Qadir’s projections, which were even less optimistic than those he made last year.
The surge is working so well we’re going to have to be in Iraq even longer than was projected a year ago! A minimum of 10 more years of success awaits us.
The “surge” has accomplished nothing.
It only stands to reason that with the Shiite Madhi Army in a “truce” and a troop escalation on our part, that the Sunni insurgency would just lay low since they don’t have the numbers. Recruiting, stockpiling weapons….
There have been several bombings lately particularly those that occurred while Sec. Gates was there.
The insurgency was showing that they can strike where and when they wish.
That’s not progress.
Also, this dimming effect only takes place in and around Baghdad and perhaps one other area. The Southern part of Iraq is still run by criminal gangs and others and is very violent on a daily basis.
The Right can spin it however they wish. Iraq is a cluster fuck and that’s all it ever will be. Now, Baathists are being allowed to be involved in government in Iraq. The exact same members of Saddam’s regime that we allegedly went there to remove.
Back to square one. Thousands of ours dead, hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis dead and displaced. All for nothing.