Because I can make guesses, like everyone else.
President: Obama 353 McCain 185
Obama wins Kerry states + NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL
My toughest call was NC and MO. They appear to be close enough that both could go either way. I picked one for Obama; one for McCain. I could have flipped a coin, but awarded NC to Obama on the basis of NC’s early voting turnout.
Senate: 57(D) 40(R) 2(I) (GA runoff)
House: 263(D) 172(R)
Reports of high voter turnout presumably favor Democratic candidates. The issue is whether young and sporadic/first-time voters show up. If they do, we should see a Democratic wave tonight. If not, we may have a late night as overwhelmed election workers sort through the mess.
NOV. 5 AM UPDATE: The predictions were fairly on target. As expected, MO and NC were incredibly close. McCain is the apparent winner in MO. Obama has a slight lead in NC with “100%” of the precincts reporting, but no big media have awarded it yet.
With NC and MO tentatively outstanding, the only state I missed was IN, which itself was so close it took at least seven hours to sort out.
It’s still too early to tell how the Senate may shake out, but I could potentially miss three races. A runoff has not yet been called in GA. Franken trails in MN, with a recount pending. And Merkley trails in OR, with the vote count ongoing.
House races are still being counted, but right now the Democrats are apparently two or three seats short of my projection.