Many argue that it will be China. But Peter Drucker, in a subscription only article (excerpted at Talking Points Memo) says to keep an eye on India:
India is becoming a powerhouse very fast. The medical school in New Delhi is now perhaps the best in the world. And the technical graduates of the Institute of Technology in Bangalore are as good as any in the world. Also, India has 150 million people for whom English is their main language. So India is indeed becoming a knowledge center.
In contrast, the greatest weakness of China is its incredibly small proportion of educated people. China has only 1.5 million college students, out of a total population of over 1.3 billion. If they had the American proportion, they’d have 12 million or more in college. Those who are educated are well trained, but there are so few of them. And then there is the enormous undeveloped hinterland with excess rural population. Yes, that means there is enormous manufacturing potential. In China, however, the likelihood of the absorption of rural workers into the cities without upheaval seems very dubious. You don’t have that problem in India because they have already done an amazing job of absorbing excess rural population into the cities–its rural population has gone from 90% to 54% without any upheaval.
Everybody says China has 8% growth and India only 3%, but that is a total misconception. We don’t really know. I think India’s progress is far more impressive than China’s.
“China has only 1.5 million college students” How can such a idiot write a article? Only last year, China have about 3m newly graduated college students . Please check and think your data before you publish it.
I am not sure about China, but India produces approx 1 Miliion Graduates a year. Thats is not the nubmer of graduates, but no of new graduates A YEAR.
+ while Indian Uni are world famous cant remember hearing of any prestegious Unis in China. Probably because, there language is CHinese and not English.
So, china has much to do if they ever want to grow up from there blue colar business.
David Upton
I am not sure about China, but India produces approx 1 Miliion Graduates a year. Thats is not the nubmer of graduates, but no of new graduates A YEAR.
+ while Indian Uni are world famous cant remember hearing of any prestegious Unis in China. Probably because, there language is CHinese and not English.
So, china has much to do if they ever want to grow up from there blue colar business.
David Upton
China now has 20 million college students in the pipeline, and 4 million are expected to graduate in 2005. China produced 450,000 engineers last year, more than ten times that were produced in the US, and the quality of Chinese graduates believed to be much more superior than the US graduates. India was able to absorb the rural population into her cities? Please give me a break, I have been to Mumbai, 55 pct of the population live in the nastiest slums that you have ever seen, without running water or electricity. And you will never find such slums in Shanghai or any cities in China. Shanghai has more than 4,000 skyscrapers that are above 40 stories, you will be lucky to see 50 in Mumbai. And Shanghai is adding one skyscraper every single day! China consumed 300 million tons of steel, more than US, Japan, Russia and England combined! And India consumed less than 25 million tons last year, and her infrastructures are absolutely pathetic, there are simply no City Planning in any of the Indian cities!
I think China is way ahead of India in terms of economic growth and social developments. It’s true that a lot of Chinese still lag behind but China’s population is just too hugh. It’s such a vast country it just takes time to develop. China has pulled millions out of poverty and it’s the top priority for the Chinese politicians. India on the other hand, they do not put too much effort in doing that.
merely building skyrises are no indicator of a country’s well being . it is the people who matter. wouldnt it be funny to call a country a super power simply because it has more scyscrapers??? well india though lags behind china in building luxury homes but even then indians are far more intensively educated. iits,iims,indian institute of technology,have always been rated amongst the top institutes in the world. india inc is giving the chinese a run for their money.well it all boils down to quality is better than quantity.a bad road and a good one will lead you to the same office place ….