Super Tuesday IV Prediction
After breathlessly hyping up yet another round of primaries, TV news will, tomorrow morning, discover that the Democratic party nomination contest is essentially in the same holding pattern as it has been for the past two months. Obama will have a 150ish delegate lead, but will remain unable to secure the nomination solely from pledged delegates.
So all today's drama will have gone for naught. And we will be subjected several more weeks of silly pundit prognostication on "electibility" and other speculative topics.
I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I see.
On a different note, here's Keith Olbermann on which states and which voters "matter" during the primaries.
Election night update: Indiana did not turn out the way I expected. I thought Senator Clinton would win the state by at least 6%, and the media would interpret the two primaries as a "tie," extending the stalemate. Obama beat expectations by winning big in North Carolina and almost winning Indiana. And consequently I'm hearing a shift in the media narrative. The pundits are more explicitly pointing out that Clinton cannot win the nomination through the primaries, and can only do so by convincing super delegates to go against the tide.
This race might not last until the end of May if either: (1) Clinton's fund raising dries up, or (2) a wave of uncommitted super delegates announce for Obama.
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