Political reporters and commentators are descending on Iowa and New Hampshire as the caucuses and primary approach.
It’s amusing to listen to the talking heads, almost in a reverential tone, discuss how “serious” Iowa and New Hampshire voters are about the presidential election.
Two things about this:
(1) What do they mean by serious? And how do they know how serious the voters are? Do they take exit polls asking: Where you serious about the vote you just cast?
(2) The implication in emphasizing the seriousness of these voters is that people in other states must be unserious about their vote. Presumably, they must go to the polls, wait in line, pick a random candidate, or doodle all their ballots.
OK, I confess that a few times I’ve cast a “statement” or “protest:” vote rather than choosing the candidate who I thought was most qualified. But I’ve done this in contests where the winner was a foregone conclusion. By the time Tennesseans get to weigh in during the primaries, the race is often over. So what’s the point?
In contrast, Iowa and New Hampshire voters, being first, determine the momentum of the primary season. They get all the campaign and media attention, so of course the atmosphere is a bit different there.
I’m pretty sure that if candidates were tripping over each other in every town in Tennessee, or Delaware, or Kansas, the voters in those states would also be “serious” enough to pay attention to the campaign. I don’t think there’s anything special in the drinking water in the Granite or Hawkeye State.

Yesterday I reached my 2007 cycling mileage goal of 5,000 miles. Back in August, I didn’t think I was going to make it. But thanks to a huge September and October, I whittled the gap down to a manageable amount before colder weather and short daylight set in. Here’s the monthly breakdown:

Month	Miles
January	295
February	245
March	319
April	438
May	630
June	501
July	407
August	489
September	735
October	599
November	335
December	51
Total	5,048

5,000 miles is my largest annual total to date. In 2006, rode 4,858 miles.
My key in reaching the goal is consistency. When the weather was decent I tried to ride at least 100 miles a week. In May, June, September, and October, I got enough extra miles in to cover for the winter shortfall. The drought wasn’t good for the environment, but it was good for cycling.
I’ve been fortunate this year: no accidents, no flat tires, minimal mechanical problems, and I didn’t even get rained on very often. In short, virtually all of the 5,000 miles were good ones.

Heh.
What the list not so subtlety highlights is the tendency of “experts” to cite global warming as a catchall explanation for phenomena they don’t yet understand.
Global warming is a potentially-dangerous problem which may alter life in the coming decades. But if you continue to yell “wolf” when you don’t know if there’s a wolf around the corner or not, pretty soon people will start ignoring you.

I’ve read (here and elsewhere) that economists have collectively failed to accurately predict a recession in the past 40 years.
So where should we turn to peer into an economic crystal ball? Perhaps the nimble Winnebago. Yes, seriously:

Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.
For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.

I wonder how much gas prices are a factor here. It seems to me that if you are a baby boomer who can afford to shell out tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for an RV, a $1 increase for a gallon of gas might not be a deal breaker. But that’s just hypothetical thinking. I suspect anxiety generated by this trend is a bigger culprit.

Are you tired of hauling a stack of junk from your mailbox?
You might want to check out a website called Catalog Choice. On Friday All Things Considered had a segment featuring the site, which purportedly enables users to opt out of receiving unwanted catalogs.
Catalog Choice is endorsed by several environmental groups, for good reason: America consumes 19 billion catalogs a year, at a cost of 53 million trees. That’s just the environmental impact from making the paper; it doesn’t include the energy needed to print, ship, and then disposal of all those catalogs. A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you’re talking some real waste.
According to the website, several corporations have a formed a relationship with Catalog Choice–not just for the environmental benefits, but also as a way to save money. It costs an average of 80 cents to ship a catalog. If you’re not reaching interested customers, that’s just money out the window.
I know my home address continues to get unwanted promotional mailings (not necessarily catalogs) sent to people who lived here more than 15 years ago. One would think companies would try to keep their mailing lists somewhat current. But obviously some of them do a bad job. Perhaps a website such as Catalog Choice will help.