{"id":1259,"date":"2004-11-01T15:21:43","date_gmt":"2004-11-01T20:21:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wordpress\/2004\/11\/election_preprediction\/"},"modified":"2004-11-01T15:21:43","modified_gmt":"2004-11-01T20:21:43","slug":"election_preprediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2004\/11\/election_preprediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Pre-Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m going to post the official Resonance election predictions tonight so that I can plug all the 11th hour polling data into my sophisticated election models.  In reality polls are of limited value at this point; turnout and the supposed non-committeds will determine the election.<br \/>\nOne thing I&#8217;m grappling with is if this election will follows historical patterns or not.  History says that incumbents don&#8217;t win close re-elections&#8211;voters usually break one way or the other.  And, if the incumbent is below 50%, he&#8217;s vulnerable because a majority of the non-committeds go with the challenger.<br \/>\nIf these two trends hold true, Kerry could win rather comfortably.  But we won&#8217;t know until tomorrow.<br \/>\nI will offer one prediction now: I think we will know the outcome late Thursday night or early Friday morning.  A number of pundits have fretted about a replay of 2000.  I doubt it.  While there may be a number of close states, I don&#8217;t think the electoral margin will be narrow enough for there to be contested states.  2000 Florida was a freakish thing; the odds against it happening twice in a row are slim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2004\/11\/election_preprediction\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to Election Pre-Prediction\"><p>I&#8217;m going to post the official Resonance election predictions tonight so that I can plug all the 11th hour polling data into my sophisticated election models. In reality polls are of limited value at this point; turnout and the supposed non-committeds will determine the election. One thing I&#8217;m grappling with is if this election will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1259","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized","7":"h-entry","8":"hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}