{"id":1263,"date":"2004-11-02T08:21:19","date_gmt":"2004-11-02T13:21:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wordpress\/2004\/11\/election_predictions\/"},"modified":"2004-11-02T08:21:19","modified_gmt":"2004-11-02T13:21:19","slug":"election_predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2004\/11\/election_predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/miscellaneous\/election04\/baelection04.jpg\"><br \/>\n<b>Electoral College:<br \/>\nKerry  311<br \/>\nBush  227<\/b><br \/>\n<b>Popular Vote:<\/b> Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Independents 2%<br \/>\n<b>US Senate:<\/b> Democrats 49, Independents 1, Republicans 50<br \/>\n<b>Tennessee Vote:<\/b> Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Independents 2%<br \/>\nComments: In a race as close as this is purported to be, just a small swing have a dramatic impact on the electoral college.  It all comes down to who votes.  I predict Kerry will win today because: (1) Bush has been polling at 48-49% (incumbent 50% rule); (2) polls understated the Democratic vote in 2000; (3) polls are likely under sampling the 18-29 age group, which should go for Kerry; (4) Democrats are fired up and have a much more organized get out the vote effort than they did in prior elections; (5) a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction our country is headed; (6) turnout is expected to be at record levels, which should benefit Kerry; (7) Kerry polls better among independents; (8) hope.<br \/>\nI had anticipated that Florida would be the toughest state to call for Kerry.  But Ohio and New Mexico ended up being the closest calls.<br \/>\nIf the day <i>really<\/i> goes well for Kerry, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia also turn blue.<br \/>\nWe&#8217;ll soon know.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2004\/11\/election_predictions\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to Election Predictions\"><p>Electoral College: Kerry 311 Bush 227 Popular Vote: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Independents 2% US Senate: Democrats 49, Independents 1, Republicans 50 Tennessee Vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Independents 2% Comments: In a race as close as this is purported to be, just a small swing have a dramatic impact on the electoral college. It [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1263","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized","7":"h-entry","8":"hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}