{"id":2207,"date":"2007-07-10T01:32:06","date_gmt":"2007-07-10T05:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wordpress\/2007\/07\/an_imbalanced_e\/"},"modified":"2007-07-10T01:32:06","modified_gmt":"2007-07-10T05:32:06","slug":"an_imbalanced_e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2007\/07\/an_imbalanced_e\/","title":{"rendered":"An Imbalanced Energy Equation"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’m not real good at mathematics, but this<\/a> supply and demand equation doesn’t look good:
\n“The IEA [International Energy Agency] predicted demand would rise by an average 2.2% a year between 2007 and 2012, up from previous estimates of 2%.”
\n+
\n“At the same time it predicted production from oil cartel Opec would fall, slipping by 2m bpd in 2009, while it also cut supply forecasts for non-Opec countries by 800,000 bpd.”
\n=
\nHigh energy prices ???
\nYou can currently read the entire report here<\/a> (.pdf). From the Executive Summary:<\/p>\n

Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012. A stronger demand outlook, together with project slippage and geopolitical problems has led to downward revisions of OPEC spare capacity by 2 mb\/d in 2009. Despite an increase in biofuels production and a bunching of supply projects over the next few years, OPEC spare capacity is expected to remain relatively constrained before 2009 when slowing upstream capacity growth and accelerating non-OECD demand once more pull it down to uncomfortably low levels.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think it’s safe to assume that in forecasting, the IEA is going to err on the side of a rosy projection. It wouldn’t be prudent for the organization to generate economic panic. So if the IEA is warning about “uncomfortably low” excess capacity, I worry that it could be even worse, with consumers soon facing an uncomfortable financial situation due to fuel costs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m not real good at mathematics, but this supply and demand equation doesn’t look good: “The IEA [International Energy Agency] predicted demand would rise by an average 2.2% a year between 2007 and 2012, up from previous estimates of 2%.” + “At the same time it predicted production from oil cartel Opec would fall, slipping […]<\/p>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2207","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized","7":"h-entry","8":"hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}