{"id":2361,"date":"2008-11-04T10:32:44","date_gmt":"2008-11-04T15:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wordpress\/2008\/11\/election_day_20\/"},"modified":"2008-11-04T10:32:44","modified_gmt":"2008-11-04T15:32:44","slug":"election_day_20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2008\/11\/election_day_20\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Day 2008 Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Because I can make guesses, like everyone else.<br \/>\n<strong>President:<\/strong>  Obama 353 McCain 185<br \/>\nObama wins Kerry states + NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL<br \/>\nMy toughest call was NC and MO.  They appear to be close enough that both could go either way.  I picked one for Obama; one for McCain.  I could have flipped a coin, but awarded NC to Obama on the basis of NC&#8217;s early voting turnout.<br \/>\n<strong>Senate:<\/strong>  57(D) 40(R) 2(I) (GA runoff)<br \/>\n<strong>House:<\/strong>  263(D) 172(R)<br \/>\nReports of high voter turnout presumably favor Democratic candidates.  The issue is whether young and sporadic\/first-time voters show up.  If they do, we should see a Democratic wave tonight.  If not, we may have a late night as overwhelmed election workers sort through the mess.<br \/>\nNOV. 5 AM UPDATE:  The predictions were fairly on target.  As expected, MO and NC were incredibly close.  McCain is the apparent winner in MO.  Obama has a slight lead in NC with &#8220;100%&#8221; of the precincts reporting, but no big media have awarded it yet.<br \/>\nWith NC and MO tentatively outstanding, the only state I missed was IN, which itself was so close it took at least seven hours to sort out.<br \/>\nIt&#8217;s still too early to tell how the Senate may shake out, but I could potentially miss three races.  A runoff has not yet been called in GA.  Franken trails in MN, with a recount pending.  And Merkley trails in OR, with the vote count ongoing.<br \/>\nHouse races are still being counted, but right now the Democrats are apparently two or three seats short of my projection.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/2008\/11\/election_day_20\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to Election Day 2008 Predictions\"><p>Because I can make guesses, like everyone else. President: Obama 353 McCain 185 Obama wins Kerry states + NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL My toughest call was NC and MO. They appear to be close enough that both could go either way. I picked one for Obama; one for McCain. I could [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2361","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized","7":"h-entry","8":"hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.brianarner.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}