Early voting has been at record levels both in Tennessee (up 45%) and across the nation. Reportedly, some voters have waited “hours” to cast their ballots. (I thought one of the reasons for voting early was to avoid the lines).
I guess I lucked out; I didn’t have to wait for anyone when I voted. Well, no one other than the two 70-year-old women at the table checking registration. It took them about two minutes to figure out that they didn’t know who had left a $20 bill at the station.
Honestly, seeing some of the people I’ve seen working the polls, I’m surprised we don’t have election problems.
What is your gut feeling about what this means for Kerry or Bush. I presume the common wisdom would say its good for Kerry, but I am curious what your take is.
If I had to go one way or the other, I’d guess that the higher the turnout is in the battleground states, the better for Kerry. But you’d have to know specifically where the voting is at to make an educated guess.
For example, here in Tennessee it appears the early voting turnout was heavier (as a %) here in Knox County than in Davidson County (Nashville). Since Knoxville is more Republican than Nashville, that might not be good for Kerry. Then again, if the surge came from UT and East Knoxville, rather than Farragut,it might be good. I haven’t attempted to do a detailed analysis.
By the way, you got a feel for things in Nevada? I ‘m going to make my predictions soon and the polls show a close race there. Anything of note going on below the national radar screen?
Greetings,
I made some comments on this, but I can’t remember if it was here or some other blog….
Anyway. “Official” polling show a slight lead for Bush, but Bush has been pummelled by his support for Yucca Mtn. That is a serious problem for him. The biggest population is LV, and it will break slightly for Kerry due to its minority (which is actually a majority) population, and due to our business structure here being on services (gambling and drinking are not Bush strongsuits). It has traditionally been the other counties that break strongly republican due to land ownership rights and gun control issues. Both of those are secondary this year due to Kerry’s stands and his support of hunters. The major issue in the other counties then is one and only one: Yucca Mtn. No one wants it due to security concerns of shipping spent nuclear fuel through their towns. So that issue is killing Bush. In the end the strong NIMBY reflex will sour many otherwise pro-Bush leaning people into the Kerry camp.
Polls have not reflected that and that feeling runs deep.
Finally, there is the “bumpersticker effect”. There are ten times more pro-Kerry bumperstickers and yardsigns than for Bush. Plus most people here hate the LVRJ and they endorsed Bush….
I’ve also heard some interesting things out of Arizona. Not that it will necessarily go blue, but that it will be much closer than 2000.