Electoral College:
Kerry 311
Bush 227
Popular Vote: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Independents 2%
US Senate: Democrats 49, Independents 1, Republicans 50
Tennessee Vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Independents 2%
Comments: In a race as close as this is purported to be, just a small swing have a dramatic impact on the electoral college. It all comes down to who votes. I predict Kerry will win today because: (1) Bush has been polling at 48-49% (incumbent 50% rule); (2) polls understated the Democratic vote in 2000; (3) polls are likely under sampling the 18-29 age group, which should go for Kerry; (4) Democrats are fired up and have a much more organized get out the vote effort than they did in prior elections; (5) a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction our country is headed; (6) turnout is expected to be at record levels, which should benefit Kerry; (7) Kerry polls better among independents; (8) hope.
I had anticipated that Florida would be the toughest state to call for Kerry. But Ohio and New Mexico ended up being the closest calls.
If the day really goes well for Kerry, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia also turn blue.
We’ll soon know.
I don’t want to be too optimistic (especially since the Cardinals already broke my heart this year, but heavy turnout has to be a good news. With approval ratings as low as Bush has had, you can’t imagine that throngs of Americans are rushing to the polls to ask for four more years of the same.
Well, you can imagine it, but if you are you’re probably living in a fantasy world…
Anyway, with TN fairly safe for Bush I’ve screwed up the only motivation I can to go to the polls: since I can’t spit in George W. Bush’s face, voting for Kerry/Edwards is the next best thing.