I’m going to post the official Resonance election predictions tonight so that I can plug all the 11th hour polling data into my sophisticated election models. In reality polls are of limited value at this point; turnout and the supposed non-committeds will determine the election.
One thing I’m grappling with is if this election will follows historical patterns or not. History says that incumbents don’t win close re-elections–voters usually break one way or the other. And, if the incumbent is below 50%, he’s vulnerable because a majority of the non-committeds go with the challenger.
If these two trends hold true, Kerry could win rather comfortably. But we won’t know until tomorrow.
I will offer one prediction now: I think we will know the outcome late Thursday night or early Friday morning. A number of pundits have fretted about a replay of 2000. I doubt it. While there may be a number of close states, I don’t think the electoral margin will be narrow enough for there to be contested states. 2000 Florida was a freakish thing; the odds against it happening twice in a row are slim.