Heavy Early Voting

Early voter turnout has been high this year, and there is evidence in some areas that Kerry is doing better in it than Gore did four years ago. The Republican talking point has been that this merely reflects a Democratic effort to “front load” voting with a coordinated get out the vote campaign. Maybe so. But citing Tennessee, Garance Franke-Ruta notes that early voting is heavy even in areas where there hasn’t been an orchestrated get out the vote effort:

Even more intriguing than what’s going on in Florida and Iowa, though, is what’s happening in the state of Tennessee, and it’s here that I think we may start getting some answers about what’s going on elsewhere. In 2000, 2.1 million people voted in this state; Bush won, 51 to 47 percent. With Bush leading by double-digit margins, Tennessee is hardly a swing state this year. It has not been the focus of anyone’s GOTV operation or advertising campaigns. But this year, 1.13 million people voted early in Tennessee during the two-week period when they could do that. That means that a third of registered voters in the state have already voted; more than half the 2000 turnout number has already been to the polls. It seems highly improbable that all these people are voting early because they’re leaning Kerry or are the subject of local Democratic GOTV campaigns, as some have speculated is part of what’s fueling the turnout in Florida.

Does this mean Kerry will win Tennessee, or America? Not necessarily. But I have a hard time envisioning Bush winning tomorrow if turnout continues to be this heavy.