Clearly things did not go yesterday the way I anticipated or hoped they would. In my defense, I’ll note that I’m not the only person scratching my head this morning. For example, John Zogby ended up picking Kerry to pick up the same 311 electoral votes as I did. And he gets paid a lot more to do this kind of thing than I do. And even the early exit polls were apparently off.
So what happened? A few things stick out in comparing the exit polling to the 2000 returns:
(1) Women: The gender gap shrunk as Bush picked 4% among females.
(2) Latinos: Among Hispanics, a growing segment rumored to be trending to the Democrats, Bush actually picked up 7%.
(3) Young voters: The “new” voter group, which favored Kerry, simply didn’t turn out as had been advertised. Only 11% of those sampled were first-time voters.
(4) Catholics: Went for Bush over the Catholic candidate.
(5) Issues: “Moral values” was deemed the most important issue by the largest percentage of voters, out pacing “terrorism” and the “economy.” Despite all the hoopla concerning 9/11, the God, guns, and gays threesome still appears to drive many people at the polls.
What to make of this? Clearly, the Democratic party is in disarray. Not only did it fail to win against an incumbent with sub-50% approval ratings, but it sustained a huge blow in the Senate. Simply put, it wasn’t even competitive in a huge part of the country. That can’t continue. Even the things that the Democrats appeared to have working in their favor this year–the 527s and the Internet/based get-out-the-vote activism–simply didn’t deliver at crunch time. In some ways it was reminiscent of the vanishing Deaniac movement in the primaries.
The Republicans will undoubtedly declare this to be a huge mandate. But a mandate for what? The GOP succeeded in making this election a contest of image: the strong commander with resolve versus the weak flip-floppy liberal. Bush didn’t campaign on a detailed second term agenda. I’m sure the think tanks and special interests have stuff waiting in the pipeline, but it’s not what Bush ran on. It remains to be seen whether the Republicans will come out with their agenda immediately, or wait for another terrorist attack to ram stuff through.
Another four years of incompetence isn’t a pleasant thought. I just hope the long-term damage to foreign relations, the supreme court, and environment won’t be too severe.
Brian,
Thanks for posting a reasoned opinion about the election. Although we disagree on the issues, it’s nice to see that someone who was a Kerry supporter (or, shall I say, a Bush detractor) is able to speak about their disappointment without resorting to the customary insults that are found on other liberal-thinking blogs.
Of course, I would expect such a tone from a fellow SAU grad. 🙂
Dave,
I could not agree more with you. The last four years Bush spent doing everything he could to get re-elected, consequences be damned. Now he has achieved his lone goal, and now America is left scratching their collective heads wondering what it is exactly Bush is going to do for the next four years. No one knows.
At this point, we, on the left, can do nothing. All we can do is hope that Bush and the Republican party don’t muck things up so much that even we venerable Democrats can’t fix it for them. For the last century, we Democrats have always been in the position of cleaning up the messes that Republicans have made. And we will relegate ourselves to doing that one more time.
Just remember this: Bush ran on the idea of transplanting “freedom” to other countries. Today, it is of the utmost importance that “freedom” remain a core value of America. That means things like allowing gays the same freedoms as straight people. Allowing women the same freedoms that they have enjoyed for the last half century. If those freedoms are taken away, then only chaos and hatred can result. So, I am glad to know that you support freedom, and will fight for the rights of women to have control over their own bodies, the homosexual population to have the right to chose who they want to love, and have the same rights as the heterosexual population of this country, and most importantly, every American to not only have the right to practice their own religion, but not be innundated with state-sponsored Christian religion propaganda.
Finally, I hope that Bush and the Republicans follow through on their push for education. Science is the only thing that will save this country (and planet) from the environmental destruction that Bush and his fellow Republicans so strongly support. Science can only result from teaching real science like physics and biology, and not any form of pseudo-science or outright fake science like creationism or intelligent design. Only science will save us from the anti-conservation, anti-fuel-efficiency, pro-oil, pro-coal, administration, and the poisons they dump into our air and water. And while teaching “abstinance” is good in principle, it will take science to cure all the diseases that come with sex, and the inevitable HUMAN urges to have sex that will occur no matter how much teaching of “you have sex you go to hell” the republicans support.
All that, and the simple fact that since the republicans are in complete control there will no longer be anyone to blame but themselves, and that is a reality that cannot be denied. So as of today, they is no reason for Democrats to complain or whine any more, all we need to do is sit back and plan how to fix the messes that the republicans create. So, yes you are right, today we should be fair and calm. We need to keep quiet and let America see for itself the problems it creates for itself, with no help from the Democrats. Today, we remain silent and respectful. For tomorrow it will be our responsibility to set right what the republican make wrong. And we will need all our strength and intelligence to do so, so wasting time whining and complaining about the results of an election that is history is pointless.
Dave, I think I’m too depressed to offer much venom.
jeff-perado, I do reserve the right to whine and complain as needed. 8^)