Josh Marshall:

To start with, for instance, don’t rely on right-wing agit-prop sites for your news about alleged instances of ‘voter fraud’. Wait till you hear real information from real news outlets.
The GOP is going to be pulling this stuff through the course of the day trying either to use it to ramp up their suppression activities or lay the groundwork for challenges to what some are starting to fear won’t be good results. (For more on how that works, see Josh Green’s always invaluable expose of the Rove election shenanigans playbook.

Yep. Earlier I saw Fox News Channel reporting on a supposed controversy regarding some ballot boxes in Philadelphia. Their source for the story? GOP campaign workers. At the time, FNC hadn’t yet been received verification from any official government source, nor had it even obtained a response from any Democratic officials. But they ran with the report anyway.
That’s Fox–dutifully conveying the GOP message.

Electoral College:
Kerry 311
Bush 227
Popular Vote: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Independents 2%
US Senate: Democrats 49, Independents 1, Republicans 50
Tennessee Vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Independents 2%
Comments: In a race as close as this is purported to be, just a small swing have a dramatic impact on the electoral college. It all comes down to who votes. I predict Kerry will win today because: (1) Bush has been polling at 48-49% (incumbent 50% rule); (2) polls understated the Democratic vote in 2000; (3) polls are likely under sampling the 18-29 age group, which should go for Kerry; (4) Democrats are fired up and have a much more organized get out the vote effort than they did in prior elections; (5) a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction our country is headed; (6) turnout is expected to be at record levels, which should benefit Kerry; (7) Kerry polls better among independents; (8) hope.
I had anticipated that Florida would be the toughest state to call for Kerry. But Ohio and New Mexico ended up being the closest calls.
If the day really goes well for Kerry, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia also turn blue.
We’ll soon know.

Are you (and America as a whole) better off than you were four years ago?
If so, you can vote for four more years of the same. If not, you can vote for a fresh start.

Freedom may be on the march, but it never cracked the guarded confines of Bush/Cheney campaign rallies.
Why is a candidate who allegedly possesses so much fortitude and steely resolve unable to confront a few hostile T-shirts?

Early voter turnout has been high this year, and there is evidence in some areas that Kerry is doing better in it than Gore did four years ago. The Republican talking point has been that this merely reflects a Democratic effort to “front load” voting with a coordinated get out the vote campaign. Maybe so. But citing Tennessee, Garance Franke-Ruta notes that early voting is heavy even in areas where there hasn’t been an orchestrated get out the vote effort:

Even more intriguing than what’s going on in Florida and Iowa, though, is what’s happening in the state of Tennessee, and it’s here that I think we may start getting some answers about what’s going on elsewhere. In 2000, 2.1 million people voted in this state; Bush won, 51 to 47 percent. With Bush leading by double-digit margins, Tennessee is hardly a swing state this year. It has not been the focus of anyone’s GOTV operation or advertising campaigns. But this year, 1.13 million people voted early in Tennessee during the two-week period when they could do that. That means that a third of registered voters in the state have already voted; more than half the 2000 turnout number has already been to the polls. It seems highly improbable that all these people are voting early because they’re leaning Kerry or are the subject of local Democratic GOTV campaigns, as some have speculated is part of what’s fueling the turnout in Florida.

Does this mean Kerry will win Tennessee, or America? Not necessarily. But I have a hard time envisioning Bush winning tomorrow if turnout continues to be this heavy.