For what it’s worth:

	AZ	CO	LA	PA	OH	FL	MI	NM	MN	WI	IA	NH
Kerry	45	48	42	60	52	51	51	50	58	52	49	57
Bush	55	51	57	40	48	48	47	48	40	43	49	41

If true, this looks promising for Kerry. But these don’t include early voting. And consider this disclaimer.
UPDATE: I have no idea if these numbers are accurate, but Drudge posting “Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio” suggests they are. I suspect he would be posting hard numbers if they had Bush ahead. Moreover, Rush is also downplaying the exit polls.
UPDATE: There continues to be an Internet dispute on the validity of these numbers. Obviously Kerry isn’t going to win PA and MN by double digits. But the chatter consensus seems to be that Kerry had a small lead in the first exit poll survey. At any rate, there’s still a lot of voting yet to come.
UPDATE: A different set of numbers over at Slate. As expected, this shows things real tight in Ohio and Florida (Kerry +1). Bush leading in NC by only 2%?

Josh Marshall:

To start with, for instance, don’t rely on right-wing agit-prop sites for your news about alleged instances of ‘voter fraud’. Wait till you hear real information from real news outlets.
The GOP is going to be pulling this stuff through the course of the day trying either to use it to ramp up their suppression activities or lay the groundwork for challenges to what some are starting to fear won’t be good results. (For more on how that works, see Josh Green’s always invaluable expose of the Rove election shenanigans playbook.

Yep. Earlier I saw Fox News Channel reporting on a supposed controversy regarding some ballot boxes in Philadelphia. Their source for the story? GOP campaign workers. At the time, FNC hadn’t yet been received verification from any official government source, nor had it even obtained a response from any Democratic officials. But they ran with the report anyway.
That’s Fox–dutifully conveying the GOP message.

Electoral College:
Kerry 311
Bush 227
Popular Vote: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Independents 2%
US Senate: Democrats 49, Independents 1, Republicans 50
Tennessee Vote: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Independents 2%
Comments: In a race as close as this is purported to be, just a small swing have a dramatic impact on the electoral college. It all comes down to who votes. I predict Kerry will win today because: (1) Bush has been polling at 48-49% (incumbent 50% rule); (2) polls understated the Democratic vote in 2000; (3) polls are likely under sampling the 18-29 age group, which should go for Kerry; (4) Democrats are fired up and have a much more organized get out the vote effort than they did in prior elections; (5) a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction our country is headed; (6) turnout is expected to be at record levels, which should benefit Kerry; (7) Kerry polls better among independents; (8) hope.
I had anticipated that Florida would be the toughest state to call for Kerry. But Ohio and New Mexico ended up being the closest calls.
If the day really goes well for Kerry, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia also turn blue.
We’ll soon know.

Are you (and America as a whole) better off than you were four years ago?
If so, you can vote for four more years of the same. If not, you can vote for a fresh start.

Freedom may be on the march, but it never cracked the guarded confines of Bush/Cheney campaign rallies.
Why is a candidate who allegedly possesses so much fortitude and steely resolve unable to confront a few hostile T-shirts?