Heavy Early Voting

Early voter turnout has been high this year, and there is evidence in some areas that Kerry is doing better in it than Gore did four years ago. The Republican talking point has been that this merely reflects a Democratic effort to “front load” voting with a coordinated get out the vote campaign. Maybe so. But citing Tennessee, Garance Franke-Ruta notes that early voting is heavy even in areas where there hasn’t been an orchestrated get out the vote effort:

Even more intriguing than what’s going on in Florida and Iowa, though, is what’s happening in the state of Tennessee, and it’s here that I think we may start getting some answers about what’s going on elsewhere. In 2000, 2.1 million people voted in this state; Bush won, 51 to 47 percent. With Bush leading by double-digit margins, Tennessee is hardly a swing state this year. It has not been the focus of anyone’s GOTV operation or advertising campaigns. But this year, 1.13 million people voted early in Tennessee during the two-week period when they could do that. That means that a third of registered voters in the state have already voted; more than half the 2000 turnout number has already been to the polls. It seems highly improbable that all these people are voting early because they’re leaning Kerry or are the subject of local Democratic GOTV campaigns, as some have speculated is part of what’s fueling the turnout in Florida.

Does this mean Kerry will win Tennessee, or America? Not necessarily. But I have a hard time envisioning Bush winning tomorrow if turnout continues to be this heavy.

Election Pre-Prediction

I’m going to post the official Resonance election predictions tonight so that I can plug all the 11th hour polling data into my sophisticated election models. In reality polls are of limited value at this point; turnout and the supposed non-committeds will determine the election.
One thing I’m grappling with is if this election will follows historical patterns or not. History says that incumbents don’t win close re-elections–voters usually break one way or the other. And, if the incumbent is below 50%, he’s vulnerable because a majority of the non-committeds go with the challenger.
If these two trends hold true, Kerry could win rather comfortably. But we won’t know until tomorrow.
I will offer one prediction now: I think we will know the outcome late Thursday night or early Friday morning. A number of pundits have fretted about a replay of 2000. I doubt it. While there may be a number of close states, I don’t think the electoral margin will be narrow enough for there to be contested states. 2000 Florida was a freakish thing; the odds against it happening twice in a row are slim.

NBC Peeve

I’ll be glad when this election is over, if for no other reason because maybe then NBC News will shut up about Rockefeller Center Democracy Plaza. Enough already.

Ohio Judge Rules Against Voter Challengers

Things have already heated up on the electoral litigation front:

A federal judge issued an order about 1:30 a.m. today barring political party challengers from polling places throughout Ohio during Tuesday’s election.
U.S. District Judge Susan Dlott found that the application of Ohio’s statute allowing challengers at polling places is unconstitutional. She said the presence of challengers inexperienced in the electoral process questioning voters about their eligibility would impede voting.

Republicans say they are appealing to the 6th Circuit. If the ruling holds, it will be a big setback in the GOP’s vote suppression plans.

Blair Re-Positions

Two days until the election. World leaders prepare accordingly:

Tony Blair has sent one of his closest advisers on a secret peace mission to mend relations with John Kerry, the United States presidential challenger, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.
News of the confidential meeting comes as the campaign enters its final 48 hours, with the candidates running neck and neck. Mr Blair is concerned that he will appear isolated if George Bush loses in Tuesday’s poll, because of his support for the Iraq war.

I know that Bush and Blair have that Iraq war bond going, but do you think Blair really gets along with Bush the way the two present themselves in public? It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall behind closed doors when some of these foreign leaders candidly discuss what they really think about the U.S. government today.